TL;DR
Initial Settlement Placement
A crucial aspect of winning in Catan is the placement of your initial settlements. Prioritize locations with access to high-probability numbers like 6, 8, 5, and 9 [1:2]. It's also important to diversify your resources to avoid dependency on a few numbers
[2:2]. Consider placing settlements near ports, especially if they align with your most abundant resource
[3:5].
Resource Management and Strategy Flexibility
Adaptability is key in Catan. If you find yourself in a competition for longest road or largest army, be ready to switch strategies if your opponents have better access to necessary resources [1:5],
[2:4]. Focus on building cities early to boost your economy, which can help you pivot strategies as needed
[2:1],
[4:5].
Development Cards and Robber Control
Development cards can be a game-changer, providing knights for robber control and other advantages. Accumulate knights to protect your resources from the robber, especially if you're targeted by opponents [4:1]. The ore-wheat-sheep (OWS) strategy is powerful because it facilitates city building and development card acquisition
[4:2].
Trading and Diplomacy
Effective trading can accelerate your progress. Don't hesitate to trade excess resources, even at a disadvantage, if it helps you achieve critical goals like building cities or roads [2:1]. Additionally, managing relationships with other players is essential; try to prevent them from uniting against you
[4:1].
Advanced Tactics
For more advanced play, consider blocking opponents strategically by using roads to limit their expansion [3:3]. Also, keep an eye on potential kingmaking scenarios where players might collaborate to stop a leader. Being aware of these dynamics can help you navigate complex social interactions during the game
[4:8].
By focusing on these strategies and maintaining flexibility, you can increase your chances of victory in Settlers of Catan.
Bonus tip: take into consideration what resource is going to be hard to get based on the map you are playing e.g. wood might have a very low chance of being rolled. Plan to either a. monopolise it & offer 1 for 2 trades or, b. make sure you have an alternate way of gaining that resource if you are going to need it.
Edit: added "thwart" to point 1 as counter on its own was causing some confusion
​
I’ve been playing for a long time and I agree with these but they’re also just pretty broad.
Most of this assumes the player knows strategy games in general.
I think that it’s obvious and common knowledge to even most new players that placing settlements on 6/8/9/5/10s will yield the most success unless dice RNG is crazy for other rolls that particular game, if you arent doing that then you don’t understand even basic statistics let alone why the 6s and 8s are red lol. Granted, it’s also not always possible to get perfect placements or even good ones - if you’re going third you might honestly just get hard unlucky if the first two placers take the 2 money spots and the board provides no other good alternatives (rare, but it happens).
Longest road and largest army I agree with but they are insanely situational and more often than not you shouldn’t be worried about those till late game as it’s more important to use your resources on expanding settlements if you can anyway.
Your wheat point is absolutely true and I can’t agree more. More new players suffer from this “brick+wood” mentality and don’t focus enough on wheat.
Also it’s actually better to play for yourself rather than focusing on what your opponents are doing, if you can break their longest road or out build them to a spot both of you are going for, then do it if your resources allow for it. If not, don’t.
>Longest road and largest army I agree with but they are insanely situational and more often than not you shouldn’t be worried about those till late game as it’s more important to use your resources on expanding settlements if you can anyway.
Yes you make a good point. I couldn't find a better way to word it because I wanted to keep my tips concise.
I have won plenty of times without longest road or biggest army. But having a route to obtaining one of those is valuable I think. Firstly, it may help you get across the line just in front of your opponents if it is a close game, and secondly it forces your opponents to contend with the fact you might go after largest army/longest road (you are leaving your options open rather than clearly telegraphing you are committed to your one route to winning and allowing your opponents to plan accordingly).
>Also it’s actually better to play for yourself rather than focusing on what your opponents are doing, if you can break their longest road or out build them to a spot both of you are going for, then do it if your resources allow for it. If not, don’t.
Yes, I very rarely try to sever someone else's roadbuilding efforts unless, like you say, a. it is very easy to do so with a low resource commitment from me or b. I need to expand in that direction for my own benefit anyway.
And while I have had my fair share of games where concentrating on my own routes to victory and just playing for myself has led to winning, I wouldn't call this a hard and fast rule. Perhaps a better way of phrasing 1. is 'Build a picture of your opponents' potential strategies and, if the opportunity arises, what you could do to counter those strategies'.
Another major game mechanic that can attribute huge success people overlook is harbors. I can’t explain how many games I’ve won due to these alone. Just another point I would add to this type of list!
I think in this context "counter" does not mean "always be interactive with the winning player." This "counter" means - do not try to beat the best-positioned person at their own strategy. Choose an alternate path to winning.
I do think it is always worth it to keep tabs on what the opponents are doing, rather than getting tunnel vision on your own goals and cards. Not that you necessarily implied otherwise.
Dont forget building your first settlement on a 2:1 harbor if it’s on a hex of that resource. I’ve won games with starting hexes that only produce 2 kinds of resources i.e. wheat and brick but I have a wheat harbor.
I would be cautious with this strategy. I have seen many a game go sour for those building directly on a harbor. I think it better to place in the center of three hexes and build to a harbor. That way you will have two more hexes that may provide resources in case the dice don’t roll in your favor.
Yup, this can be a valid strategy
I describe my style of play as "Wheat Baron." Nice to see it written as a general rule from an experienced player.
Im not sure, but i did experience, that early game expansion(build more settlements or upgrade to tow ) is more important than spending resources on development cards.
New settlements and towns is always my first goal. I got into a game where the dice weren't falling for me and I was getting flushed with sheep, rock, and wheat. I switched tactics to grab development cards. I ended up with the win for that game.
Hi! I’ve come to this Reddit group because I’m quite puzzled about my track record. I’m familiar with all the rules to Catan, but I just can’t ever seem to win. I’ve tried a lot of different strategies — aiming for Longest Road, buying a bunch of Development Cards, or placing my settlements close to harbors — and nothing seems to work. There’s got to be some way I can improve my strategy to win. Any tips?
There are many strategies, but one thing I find not talked about often is number diversity.
Like, if your two initial positions are both the exact same numbers, it can really slow you down if those numbers don't get rolled as often as you'd like.
If I see two nice spots on the board, but they are both "5,9,10." I might opt to make my second position a "6,3,4" instead.
Doubling up on numbers just makes your resource production more volatile. If you are behind it could be the thing to bring you back into the game, or the nail in the coffin.
Yeah, it can definitely work in your favor too. I just feel for the sake of playing it safe, it is wise to get number diversity. Although, doubling up could be the reason you win in some instances for sure.
I have a tendency to take duplicate numbers, and my non-scientific analysis is that it's bad. Slow and steady is better than surges. I have to remind myself not to do this.
Agree with getting good starting places with high odds of rolling. Try to make sure you have complimentary resources that you’ll be able to use together. If ore is available for example, try to also get wheat, and sheep. In most cases building a city should be your first goal, then start working towards whatever will help you get largest army or longest road.
Read somewhere to focus on two resources at initial placing (in addition to high odds). EITHER ore+wheat or wood+brick. The rest will follow…
The biggest mistake I see being made is people don’t make adjustments to strategy. If your in a battle for longest road and you realize they opposition has better numbers for brick and wood maybe look somewhere else for points so your not wasting resources.
At minimum I like to find a 3:1 port early. Ideally I always find a way to land a 2:1 port with whatever resource I have good numbers on. Lastly I find as long as I have good to solid ore and wheat numbers over the other resources I will usually remain competitive in each game.
A common mistake I see people make is with initial placement. I believe it’s more important to place on good numbers that roll often, rather than trying to place so that you have one of each resource.
It’s all about balancing pips and resource spread. But OC is right, just producing a shit ton of resources is always better than having perfect resource ratios and producing much less.
Balancing high rolling numbers with variety of numbers.
Snag a 3:1 and you’re set
Lots of great advice here, especially with being flexible! You never mentioned anything about cities, but cities are amazing boosts to your economy. Also, trading is important to get a head start. Don’t be afraid to give up extra resources like 2:1 or 3:1 with other players to rush cities or roads and settlements that are contested.
So here’s the deal. I used to basically dominate setties (as we call it) with my friends/family but lately I’ve been on a bit of a losing streak and it’s kind of pissing me off. Does anyone have a go to strategy that gets them consistent Wins???
I kind of bounce between the brick wood/longest road and the wheat ore/largest army strategy. Anyone use either of these every time?
Any help is appreciated!
So my personal strategy is not always the best but it suits me well(assuming plain red box (. I go for the best ore and wheat spot I can. My philosophy is if I can get two cities really fast then I can trade for the stuff in missing.
This is my go-to as well. Good ore and wheat spots are top priority, followed by access to at least one of each resource.
Also, I don't tend to save cards; I spend them when I can to keep from losing half my hand to the robber. If I can't build something, I buy a development card.
If you're wanting to lose friends or have your friends/family never want to play with you you can use my go to strategy. Start on good Wood and Brick spots and use your surplus to build roads to block people from certain resources or parts of the board. It usually works good to block them from things like rock or wheat to become the kingpin of those resources.
Plop a settlement near a 2:1 port that is going to be getting that resource, even if it is sheep.
Consideration of ports is often neglected during initial settlement placement. You should put your first settlement on a high-production space (especially if it's on a 6 or an 8), and if you can, put the second settlement near a 2:1 port corresponding to your biggest-earning resource. Then if you can, try to make your first settlement into a city ASAP.
That allows you to some flexibility if you can't get favorable trades with the other players.
"The only winning move is not to play."
I came here to post this.
Sorry to steal it from you!
My personal strategy is keeping away from my wife, then pointing out how someone else is making it tough for her to win. They fight over area and won’t trade with each other and I hope I can get 4 villages and 2 point cards before the other player
Hello there,
I m French so pardon my english I will try my best.
So first : I m a begginner playing with other begginers. Second : I won. Each. And every. Time. (We played like 5 Times).
So as a well behaved adult I had the appropriate reaction and became unsufferable. Telling everyone that I am the best. Calling my husband and dearest friends big loosers. Normal adult réaction.
And now my problem : I don’t want to loose. My all identity with in our group of friends depends on me winning at varan. It’s all I have. But they gonna all rally against me the next Time we play and crush me. And I, will be a big looser.
So my question is simple : how to win at catan, what is the best strategy when you know everyone will be against you ?
If you’re playing with beginners they probably don’t understand the true power of OWS (ore-wheat-sheep) yet.
If that’s the case, you can go full force on ore, wheat and sheep spots. Get cities way earlier than everyone else and buy nonstop dev cards. They won’t recognize how well you’re doing until it’s too late.
In order for this strategy to work well you have to have a reasonable balance of OWS. If you have only 2 pips of ore and 16 of sheep with no ports, then you’re likely setting yourself up for a rough game. In my experience, you want to have the most ore, second most wheat, and least sheep out of the three.
Having more ore will allow you to get cities much earlier and increase your production significantly faster than everyone else while sheep will just clog up your hand if you don’t have other complementary cards to go with it.
Now OWS, while focusing on ore wheat and sheep, does not mean that you need only to have ore wheat and sheep. Brick and wood will be very helpful. It’s just not strictly necessary and often times you’ll be better off going for increased OWS instead of brick and wood.
No matter what your strategy is, you should have a general idea of what your plan is to get to 10 points from the start when you’re placing.
For example, if you are playing OWS you are likely not going to be going for longest road. Your win condition is probably gonna look something like 6 points from three cities, 2 points from largest and 2 points from 2 victory points, or a victory point and an additional settlement.
Another option is just having four cities and largest army and that wins it for you. There’s a good chance since you’ll be buying so many dev cards that you’ll get even more victory points and it’ll be even easier to win, but have a plan of where you’ll be getting your additional settlements early on because if you have to fight for those settlement spots with an OWS set up you’ll probably lose that fight.
Take all this with a grain of salt because it’s not necessarily possible on every single board to have a strong OWS set up and that’s OK. What’s important in Catan is knowing how to be flexible and adapt to whatever situation you’re put into to make your position as strong as possible.
If you want more advice, feel free to ask, I’ve been playing Catan casually and in tournaments for many years now!
This. But also realize there is a difference between them not wanting to help you vs them actively trying to make you lose.
This strategy may well be enough to not need trades, especially if you can get a relevant port. It can help against the robber being placed on you repeatedly.
But nothing will stop you from losing if two players give the third player all their resources for free at the last moment to cross the finish line before you.
Well that’s just kingmaking and I make it clear from the start they can target me all they want, but any moves made without any expectation for them to increase your chance of winning are not allowed.
I just realized that also I did not mention the reasons why OWS is so powerful. I did mention that you’ll get cities much earlier than everyone else, but the other things are that you will likely have much better control of the robber than anyone else, and you will have endless development cards to boost you along in the game that they won’t have.
If you’re playing with people who still point their roads together in their initial placements to get a jumpstart on longest road, you can probably win every single game this way
This. if they gang up on you, OWS is required because you need a ton of knights to keep the robber in-check.
@OP When they roll a 7 and you have unplayed knight(s) you can just apply some mental pressure to that player that if he blocks you you will just move it right back to them. If only one of them breaks the all get angry at that player and your path to victory is free.
So much expertise oO i thank you master of the art and will try to use your wisdom to crush my opponent with the power of OWS oO
Haha my pleasure! If you are feeling like learning how it feels to lose we can play an online game over discord;)
Pick one of your opponents to assist and help them build an early advantage so the other two have to shift their focus. I'd chose the person that's the combination of furthest away from you/worst player. Help them get to 5 while everyone else is at three and the remaining players will have to disregard your past wins and deal with the present. When the other two players turn on the leader join them.
You are diabolical oO I like that oO
Pretty hard to win against everyone if you have more than 3 players.
Accept losing.... it's character building
Bring loaded dice. Poison the cheese dip. When all else fails, flash em for the win.
I would focus on trying to convince the table not to gang up on you. It’s not an easy skill to develop but you won’t win nearly as many games if it’s 3 against 1. Learn how to motivate your friends to at least occasionally go against each other. And when you must be the target, robber control is your best friend. Make sure your good spots are shared with other players so they won’t be blocking your best production. Accumulate knights so you can keep moving it off you. If your friends won’t trade with you, you’ll need an early port so you can keep building. The ore-wheat-sheep advice already given is great. Eventually somebody else will start winning and the focus will shift- until then, be a little more humble, attribute your success to lucky rolls, and try not to gloat!
First two settlements on the two outer most tiles, everyone starts with a 3:1 port to speed up the start
Seems like there’s no skill involved and the winner is just who gets the best rolls
Like every Catan match
You're wrong in that respect.
Best tactical city placements and table talking changes the game so much.
You definitely can't win out of bad city placement, nor a table that incorrectly thinks you're the number one threat.
If that was true then everybody would have roughly the same win rate
This is the uno equivalent to Catan. Like this must take 12iq to play.
That’s being generous
Others are saying “no skill involved” but I actually think there would be a some in deciding how vertical to go early (to increase resource draw) verses when to sprint for the city to win. Also trading and the robber come into play. Sounds like a fun alternative game.
Yea I’m considering playing a game of this with my pops
This seems uneven. But it’s an interesting concept. I think it could be reworked for something interesting.
I thought that jug at the back was a huge robber when I first glanced at the image!
I play against more or less the same friends, winning like 50-60%.
They know how to play casually, but they just lack the strategy/vision, so I keep winning. For a while, I've been regularly changing playing styles and strategies and recently our Catan nights that used to be fun just turn out just being them Vs me, no matter what.
At first they were still trying to win the game and wouldn't make totally dumb plays just to screw me over, but now this has changed.
Recently, even if I opt to purposely pick worse initial positionings, avoid building early (I literally stack 10 cards gambling a 7 won't come and do dumb plays just to stay with 2 villages while they have 3-5 points so that I can pop off later on after flying under the radar), they still block me or don't trade me. It has come to a point where with the option of blocking winner players sharing cities on a 6 or 8 rock hex, I'm blocked with 2 points only.
Obviously, the games take forever and it's literally impossible for me to come back, and someone ends up winning after a very odd game full of irrational plays.
I really enjoy Catan nights when it used to be about having fun and trying to win. It seems like they have come to a point where they prefer getting better chances of winning by putting me completely out of the game, and then trying to gamble a late random win on a sufferable game with mistakes such as not blocking players competing with them for a road/knight or choosing to go for bad hexes on a 4th village to cut me out from building.
Anyone went through this? Is there anything special I can do? My last game was just randomly building roads and getting Dev cards to try to sneakily get road and longest army just to not be last. I lost all the joy of playing and unfortunately I don't have many more friends that like board games.
You should try to build your roads so it looks like a penis. They will find this mind blowingly hilarious and crowd surf you to the bedroom for a game of "Patchwork".
Playing Catan in 2025????
Yes, because it's still fun
I love King Making. It shows that a game has meaningful interaction and we're not just all trying to get the best score.
I would argue that the players who feel like they deserved the win are the problem. You deserve to win if you can beat all of the players. If they are tired enough of you winning all of the time just take the L, or consider that your challenge to win anyway.
/uj I really do love kingmaking...
Two things:
Not reading that. Cole welrhe says King making = good so King making = god. Nuff said
I play against more or less the same friends, winning like 50-60%.
They know how to play casually, but they just lack the strategy/vision, so I keep winning. For a while, I've been regularly changing playing styles and strategies and recently our Catan nights that used to be fun just turn out just being them Vs me, no matter what.
At first they were still trying to win the game and wouldn't make totally dumb plays just to screw me over, but now this has changed.
Recently, even if I opt to purposely pick worse initial positionings, avoid building early (I literally stack 10 cards gambling a 7 won't come and do dumb plays just to stay with 2 villages while they have 3-5 points so that I can pop off later on after flying under the radar), they still block me or don't trade me. It has come to a point where with the option of blocking winner players sharing cities on a 6 or 8 rock hex, I'm blocked with 2 points only.
Obviously, the games take forever and it's literally impossible for me to come back, and someone ends up winning after a very odd game full of irrational plays.
I really enjoy Catan nights when it used to be about having fun and trying to win. It seems like they have come to a point where they prefer getting better chances of winning by putting me completely out of the game, and then trying to gamble a late random win on a sufferable game with mistakes such as not blocking players competing with them for a road/knight or choosing to go for bad hexes on a 4th village to cut me out from building.
Anyone went through this? Is there anything special I can do? My last game was just randomly building roads and getting Dev cards to try to sneakily get road and longest army just to not be last. I lost all the joy of playing and unfortunately I don't have many more friends that like board games.
It sounds like you are bitter that you aren't easily winning anymore? Many advanced Catan players do play like that. To halt the winning player at all costs by teaming up with others and not trading is a valid strategy. Sometimes I'm dead last but will still be robbed to death because others know that I'm a big threat. I get serious joy when I still win despite the constant clobbering.
Indeed I am. But is there a way to come out if this? I came out of a game where I had like 3 villages, and people with 7-8 points that with a lucky round and some trades could win, and I was still getting blocked. Or even a more ridiculous one where the person in 2nd place with 7 points chose to build on an hex that I had my 2 open roads pointed to, that was a crappy 2/11/12 triple sheep, completely killing his game, just to avoid having me building a 4th village, instead of that person going for a hex with 5 rock 4 wheat that was basically a guaranteed win
If you have a 2/11/12 you might want to spread apart the lowest numbers just as with the red numbers when setting up the board. Those clumps of low numbers just make the game very slow and unfair.
>But is there a way to come out if this?
It is possible to commit no mistakes, and still lose. That is not weakness. That is life.
If it was me, I'd stop trying to win. Find another "goal" in the game besides winning.
I don't know about you, but I actually feel very proud when my friend-group teams up against me. They're all having fun, working together, trying to stop me like I'm a raid boss. That's board gaming right there.
I would talk to them about it, and if they want to keep it up then Catan needs to leave the game rotation. If they insist on playing it, sit it out or don't go. There's no point in playing a game if you know you're going to be miserable, and what kind of friends are they if they expect you to put up with a crappy experience repeatedly.
Man, it sucks that this seems to be the only way, but I've tried having an adult conversation. I'm really over the phase of going out for drinks, and I had finally found a great night plan.
The game after this attempt of getting my friends to behave like adults and just enjoy a damn game, we had a scenario where I did a gentleman's agreement with a player for "I'll trade you this 1 for 1 like you need, but you guarantee won't build your road here to cut me out", we shook hands on it, the next turn the player does exactly what we agreed he wouldn't do. It has his first turn of the game. They all laughed like it was something smart. Even though I ended up winning with a road and army on the same turn and left them trailing.
I know game is game and this can happen, but it's like at an unplayable level
Why don’t you guys at least take a break from Catan. Play something like Pandemic or Betrayal where there’s some cooperation built into the game. That way your friends will be happy to side with you. Branching out and playing some other strategy games like Risk/Axis&Allies or Smallworld could help them to improve at Catan as well, it can be difficult to improve if you’re just playing the same game all the time.
Have you tried trolling? Have a new objective, like becoming sheep lord and just trying to monopolize and carry as much sheep as possible and only target to sabotage anyone who has a sheep. Really get into it and roleplay like it's DnD and your character has a huge sheep fetish. You might lose with like 4 points but you can have fun and just make sheep sounds all game lol.
I did something like this once on game night with Risk. My entire objective was to control Asia and only Asia. Once I claimed all of Asia, I announced "the first person to attack me, I will direct all my forces against you AND ONLY you."
It of course got them to gang up against me...but nobody was willing to make the first move to attack. Two turns later we had to stop playing because nobody could figure out what to do lol. I consider that a win for me :)
Yes, most often they say I'm only helping the other players so I can fool them and win in the end, and table talk like that. Example - early game, just to test their stupidity, I was giving 3 rocks for 1 wheat to build my first village and not even players with no rock hexes but that had wheat took it.
On our last game, I've literally brought someone 65+ with close to no Catan experience to play an 5-6 expansoon, knowing they would screw me over anyways so at least I could teach this person.
Ridiculously enough, this person won against them, who have ~200-300 games, even doing mistakes. Just because they kept doing dumb moves such as blocking me with 2 points or cutting me off and building a village on a 2/12/11 triple sheep hex instead of going for hexes with good odds/resources, just because that was one of the hexes I could build to.
Many people are suggesting ways to mitigate these issues, but something I've learned in both video and board games is that if the groups goals when playing the game the game is fundamentally misaligned, someone is gonna be left having less fun.
If you enjoy a game where you've minmaxed and play with optimal strategy, find a group that also plays like that. If you're spending time outside of game night researching strategies and such, you're obviously going to paint a huge target on your back when you show up to the next game night. If you don't enjoy the heat that comes from that, find a new game, and play it more casually like the rest of the table, or look for a different group who will challenge you strategically. One of the first questions when I'm setting up a new group for anything is "What is everyone's expectations from this? What do you find fun about the activity?" Because if one person says they just want to get drunk and hang and another says they enjoy the strategy and game theory, I know there's gonna be a problem one way or another down the line.
Find a compromise if possible, but it's important to not sacrifice your fun for the sake of the group, because at the end of the day we all play games to have fun, and while there is no one way to have fun playing games, there are some ways that are not compatible with eachother.
This is the right answer. If 3 Joe Six-pack are playing 4 person chess with Bobby Fischer the optimal strategy is to team up against him. OP sounds like sour grapes. He is min-maxing, but you know what, so are the other players. Might not be fun for him but too bad. If he is better at games in general it is time to look into non-interactive/coop games, because this is going to keep being a problem.
Its a tough call, but an important one.
It's one of the reasons why my family tries to find a new game to play every year at the holidays, because in our group often the best games happen in that middle ground stage after everyone has learned the rules but before anyone figures out the meta. We have a mix of strategy minded players and more casual players, and there is a sweat spot around 5-10 games in where everyone has tried a few different strategies, seen the strengths and weaknesses, and there are a few different ways people have won the past games, so we see a nice variety in strategy but any one could win depending on how things go.
Meanwhile the games we've played 100+ times, we all know one or two strong strategies and can tell what the others are probably going for, which can make for a competitive game for the strategy minded players, but also for one that is frustrating and stressful for the casual players. Obviously leaving the group doesn't work when it's your family at the holidays, so we mitigate the issue by finding those fresh new experiences and giving the older games some time to rest before revisiting them.
I was on 8 going for 10 with a conflict, I put 23 troops down but another player made up a 12 point deficit with cards and took the conflict! I thought I lost it there. Next round I played as many troops onto the conflict as I could in one card, but the top prize for the new conflict was only influence, no victory points. So I revealed early, took a spice must flow, and used the influence to steal an alliance. It finished with me on 10, second on 9, and third and forth on 8th.
Not sharing as if this is a masterclass, I'm a total novice. Just so in love with this game and sharing what an adrenaline rush it was. Nail-biting the whole time.
I got to master last time - though not that high. Still a fun experience i love playing it
Well done! I’ve played many different types of games. This is hands down the best designed game I’ve ever played. Love it!
Bro every single time I think I have THE strategy down, I get humbled. One day, I'll get this rush, congrats!
It really is great, I keep telling gaming friends to get on it, I've had some fantastic gaming experiences.
It’s such a fun game!!! Nice win! My most recent win I played with my friends that I’m really proud of. I won it by round 6! It was with the immortality expansion and it just went almost perfectly for me
I felt Catan is too luck based while it is to be a strategy game.
I mean probably 50/50.
Obviously original placement and where you choose to build is skill.
Opponents can cut you off you’re placing at the turning point so that is a bit out of your hands.
Dice rolls are obviously luck and the development cards are also luck.
But… a seasoned player vs 3 newbies will likely win 50+% of the time. So clearly skills is required.
I played a shitload of Catan during covid. Like 60+ games over about 18 months and we kept stats through all of it.
It was with the same group and we were all pretty well versed in the game even before we started playing weekly.
The difference in win % between the best and worst player was relatively small. We were all good at the game. We could all recognize where there was a potential to get screwed over, who had the best positioning, and blatant mistakes were very uncommon.
All this to say, once we all reached a certain point of skill, it sort of plateaus and becomes more about luck. There is only so good you can be at a game like this. And that was evident in the statistics.
I believe that like most games and skills, as you get better you start getting diminishing returns on the time spent playing or practising. While 3 games a month over 18 months is a lot for irl play, it's still at best 120 hours of Catan, and it's needed a lot more to start noticing stuff that you didn't before and, well, getting even better. Maybe with 100 more games one notices that not closing a 5 ore with your initial placement (allowing 3 people to go there instead of 2) can be good on high OWS map because your 5 almost won't be blocked by knights (as 3/4 people have a settle there). And that piece of information can maybe help you win 5 out of the next 100 games that you would have lost otherwise.
The point is: the skill ceiling is high but one needs a ton of games to get close to it
Top players that have thousands of hours into the game have at best 33% winrate against other top players, but against your usual good house player or local tournament player it's probably closer to 50% (just an estimation as there's no data on that).
Source: been ranked top 20 (of ~40.000) in Colonist and I average 3 games a day in the last 3 months, and I would still get crushed 40% of the time vs players with 2000 hours more than me in the game.
A strong player playing with complete newbies would win almost every time.
Ian D, the 2019 Catan US National Champion, used to be a coworker -- so I would either play with him or watch some of his games. He was very regularly winning, much more than not, even with people who knew what they were doing.
Like > 85% of the time he'd win. These were people who knew the rules, knew about synergistic placements, traded smartly ...
This is true. When I would teach newbs I would always give them a reason why their settlement and road placement was dumb and give them an opportunity to change their minds. I would still win the majority of the games.
For base Catan I would say it’s about 60% skill, 40% luck & for Cities & Knights it’s about 75% skill, 25% luck.
With the base game, you rely heavily on the dice rolls and your initial setup.
With C&K, there’s more complexity, which reduces the amount of reliance on “pure luck”.
In my experience, C&K is won 50% of the time with the play of the Merchant card. I'm not sure the extra complexity in C&K makes it less reliant on luck. With the amount of Progress cards flying back and forth it is also more frenetic than the base game.
I think it depends. Whenever I win it’s obviously 100% skill. But whenever anyone else wins it’s obviously 100% luck and I actually played the superior game.
If you rolled a single 12-sided die, then Catan would be mostly luck. Since you roll two 6-sided dice, it becomes a game of probability management, which is a skill. That’s to say nothing of the social aspects such as trade and negotiation that don’t play out as well online but work great in person.
Highest elo on boardgamearena is around 500. That’s quite a separation from some noob with 100-150 elo. It’s less separation than some high weight euro like Terra Mystica or Castles of Burgundy, where the top players are >700 elo, so the ceiling is lower for sure. It’s even a fair bit lower than the top players of Ticket to Ride, also around 700, but that’s apples to oranges with many of the “top” players playing a ton of 2-player games which is 1) lame (who actually wants to play 2-player TTR on the US map?) and 2) much less likely for a worse player to win than if playing with 3-4 players like Catan. Also, even if you convince me that TTR has a higher skill ceiling than Catan, you can’t convince me it’s a better game.
So anyways, there is definitely skilled play to Catan, and better players will win much more often than worse players, but it’s the sort of game you can master by being smart and playing a fair bit without having to actively “study” the game, whereas some games I feel like I’d have to actively study to become awesome at.
I get that you compare those stats on bga and I personally love bga. But most somewhat serious Catan players are playing it elsewhere. Especially since ranked is 3 players.
Oh, for sure, but if I used the Catan-specific websites, then I wouldn’t know how to compare it to other games.
I like white, but would have pointed at least one of the roads to a port.
Tell us how it ends!!!
Red somehow came back from loosing her city to winning. I ended up third. Just couldn't get the rolls. I had both 9s for example and it probable came up 5 or 6 times all game. 8 wasn't super popular either tonight. 2, 4 and 6 were most common with 2 getting early action and then quieting down. Fast game for C&K
I would probably have taken white, or blue ahead of red.
Still just goes to show how the roll of the dice and the randomness of cards makes Catan a new game every time. To be fair, and give credit where it is due, it probably also shows the skill of red to maximise opportunities when fighting back?
how to win at Settlers of Catan
Key Strategies for Winning at Settlers of Catan
Initial Placement:
Resource Management:
Road Building:
Development Cards:
Robber Strategy:
Adaptability:
Endgame Focus:
Recommendation: Always be aware of the game dynamics and adjust your strategies based on the flow of the game. Communication and negotiation with other players can also significantly impact your success. Enjoy the game!
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